Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (2024)

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2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories

Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (1)

Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 24, 2024): Ridley Scott’s highly anticipated blockbuster sequel, “Gladiator II,” made an impressive debut with its first screening in Los Angeles, shown to an audience of AMPAS and SAG voters. The screening has instantly thrust the Paramount Pictures epic into the Oscar conversation, with the film positioned as a strong contender in several categories. Notably, Denzel Washington, a two-time Academy Award winner, has emerged as a potential best supporting actor nominee. Washington could secure his third Oscar if he wins, further solidifying his place among Hollywood’s elite.

Paramount Pictures had an exceptional week overall. Their acquired drama “September 5” won the Audience Award at the Middleburg Film Festival, tying with Focus Features’ religious thriller “Conclave.” For “Conclave,” this marks its second Audience Award win, following a previous win at the Mill Valley Film Festival, confirming the film’s broad appeal and crowd-pleasing nature.

The success of “September 5” at Middleburg is particularly significant, as the festival’s audience often skews older, making it a valuable indicator of how the film might perform with more mature viewers. The strong reception from this demographic suggests the film could perform well with general audiences as it moves forward in its release and potential awards season campaign.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on theVarietyAwards Circuit:Oscars.

While at the Middleburg Film Festival, I also observed the varied responses to other festival darlings like Brady Corbet’s 215-minute historical epic “The Brutalist” and Jacques Audiard’s crime musical “Emilia Perez.” Some attendees shared some varied and some mixed reactions. “Emilia Perez,” distributed by Netflix, notably missed out on taking home the international feature audience prize awarded to Neon’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Mohammad Rasoulof. The loss could be a warning sign for “Emilia Perez” or indicate a more challenging road ahead regarding stabilizing awards season buzz. Netflix will likely require continued screenings and support from its admirers to build momentum as it seeks to establish a stronger foothold in the competitive international film market.

Paramount’s strong performance with films like “Gladiator II” and “September 5” positions the studio (currently going through a highly publicized transition) as a major player in the upcoming awards season. As these films gain traction, audiences, and industry insiders should watch their progress as potential award-winning titles. For moviegoers, these films offer a glimpse into some of the year’s most exciting and critically acclaimed projects.

The latest updates to the Oscar predictions are below. You’ll find some increased potential noms for Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” and Berger’s “Conclave.” But there is still a long way to go. Next is the SCAD Savannah Film Festival, where “Blitz,” “The Piano Lesson,” and the big animated feature contenders will try to charm the southern crowd.

Top 4 projected nomination leaders (films): “Gladiator II” (11); “Emilia Pérez” (10); “The Brutalist” and “Dune: Part Two” (9); “Conclave” (8)

Top 4 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (17); A24 and Paramount Pictures (12); Focus Features (11); Warner Bros. (9); Sony Pictures Classics (7)

The 97thOscarswill be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

  • Best Picture

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (2)

    Anora” (Neon)
    Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
    The Brutalist” (A24)
    A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Conclave” (Focus Features)
    Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
    Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
    Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
    The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Director

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (3)

    Jacques Audiard
    “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
    Edward Berger
    “Conclave” (Focus Features)
    Brady Corbet
    “The Brutalist” (A24)
    Ridley Scott ***
    “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
    Denis Villeneuve
    “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Actor

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (4)

    Adrien Brody ***
    “The Brutalist” (A24)
    Timothée Chalamet
    “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Colman Domingo
    “Sing Sing” (A24)
    Ralph Fiennes
    “Conclave” (Focus Features)
    Paul Mescal
    “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Actress

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (5)

    Angelina Jolie ***
    “Maria” (Netflix)
    Karla Sofía Gascón
    “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
    Mikey Madison
    “Anora” (Neon)
    Saoirse Ronan
    “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Tilda Swinton
    “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Supporting Actor

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (6)

    Kieran Culkin
    “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Clarence Maclin
    “Sing Sing” (A24)
    Guy Pearce
    “The Brutalist” (A24)
    Stanley Tucci
    “Conclave” (Focus Features)
    Denzel Washington ***
    “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Supporting Actress

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (7)

    Danielle Deadwyler
    “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
    Ariana Grande
    “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
    Saoirse Ronan
    “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
    Isabella Rossellini
    “Conclave” (Focus Features)
    Zoe Saldaña ***
    “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Original Screenplay

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (8)

    Anora” (Neon) ***
    Sean Baker
    The Brutalist” (A24)
    Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
    A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Jesse Eisenberg
    The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
    Mohammad Rasoulof
    September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
    Moritz Binder, Alex David, Tim Fehlbaum

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Adapted Screenplay

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (9)

    A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
    James Mangold, Jay Cocks
    Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
    Peter Straughan
    Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
    Jacques Audiard
    The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Pedro Almodóvar
    Sing Sing” (A24)
    Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Animated Feature

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (10)

    Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
    Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen
    Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
    Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney
    Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
    Morgan Neville, Pharrell Williams, Mimi Valdés, Caitrin Rogers, Shani Saxon
    Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
    Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham
    The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
    Chris Sanders, Jeff Hermann

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Production Design

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (11)

    Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
    Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock
    The Brutalist” (A24)
    Judy Becker
    Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
    Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
    Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
    Arthur Max, Elli Griff
    Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
    Nathan Crowley

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Cinematography

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (12)

    The Brutalist” (A24)
    Lol Crawley
    Conclave” (Focus Features)
    Stéphane Fontaine
    Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
    Greig Fraser
    Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
    John Mathieson
    Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
    Jarin Blaschke

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Costume Design

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (13)

    Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
    Jacqueline Durran
    Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
    Jacqueline West
    Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
    Janty Yates
    Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
    Linda Muir
    Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***
    Paul Tazewell

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

  • Film Editing

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (14)

    Anora” (Neon)
    Sean Baker
    Conclave” (Focus Features)
    Nick Emerson
    Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
    Joe Walker
    Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
    Juliette Welfling
    Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
    Sam Restivo, Claire Simpson

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Makeup and Hairstyling

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (15)


    Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
    Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
    Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
    The Substance” (Mubi)
    Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

  • Sound

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (16)

    Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
    The Brutalist” (A24)
    Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
    Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
    Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

  • Visual Effects

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (17)

    Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
    Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
    Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
    Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
    Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!

  • Original Score

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (18)

    The Brutalist” (A24) ***
    Daniel Blumberg
    Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
    Clément Ducol, Camille
    Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
    Harry Gregson-Williams
    The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
    Alberto Iglesias
    The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
    Kris Bowers

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Original Song

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (19)


    Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
    “Winter Coat” by Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson
    Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
    “Mi Camino” by Clément Ducol and Camille
    The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
    “The Journey” by Diane Warren
    The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
    “Kiss the Sky” by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi
    Will & Harper” (Netflix)
    “Harper and Will Go West” by Sean Douglas, Kristen Wiig & Josh Greenbaum

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • Documentary Feature

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (20)

    Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
    dir. Shiori Itô
    Dahomey” (Mubi)
    dir. Mati Diop
    Daughters” (Netflix) ***
    dir. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae
    No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)
    dirs. Yuval Abraham, Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Rachel Szor, Fabien Greenberg, Bård Kjøge Rønning
    Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
    dir. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

  • International Feature

    Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (21)

    Dahomey” from Senegal (Mubi)
    dir. Mati Diop
    Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
    dir. Jacques Audiard
    Grand Tour” from Portugal (Mubi)
    dir. Miguel Gomes
    I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
    dir. Walter Salles
    The Seed of a Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)
    dir. Mohammad Rasoulof

    Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Oscars 2025: Updated Predictions With the Rise of ‘Conclave’ and ‘Gladiator II’ Landing (2024)

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